How Donald Trump Secured a Major Step in the Middle East But Faces Challenges Regarding Putin Concerning Ukraine

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin's scheduled talks on the near lengthy war in the region have been put on hold.

Accounts of an impending US-Russia leadership meeting have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.

Only a few days after Donald Trump said he planned to confer with Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.

A initial get-together by the two nations' leading diplomats has been called off, too.

"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," President Trump told the press at the White House on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I will observe what happens."
  • Donald Trump says he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after plan for Putin talks postponed
  • Disappointment in Kyiv as President Zelensky leaves White House empty-handed

The on-again, off-again summit is another development in the president's attempts to mediate an conclusion to war in Ukraine – a topic of increased attention for the American leader after he orchestrated a truce and prisoner exchange agreement in the Palestinian territory.

During a speech in the North African country last week to commemorate that truce deal, Trump addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.

"We have to get the Russian situation resolved," he declared.

However, the circumstances that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for the negotiation team may be difficult to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for almost four years.

Less Leverage

Per Witkoff, the key to achieving a deal was Israel's decision to strike representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a move that angered America's Arab allies but provided Trump leverage to compel Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

Trump benefited from a long record of siding with the Israeli state since his first term, encompassing his decision to relocate the American embassy to the contested city, to alter US policy on the legality of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, more recently, his backing for Israel's military campaign against Iran.

The American leader, actually, is more popular among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a position that gave him unique influence over the Israeli leader.

Add in Trump's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the region, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to secure an deal.

In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, the president has significantly reduced leverage. In recent months, he has swung between efforts to pressure the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.

Trump has warned to enact new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that doing so could harm the global economy and further escalate the war.

Meanwhile, the president has publicly berated Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with the country and pausing arms shipments to the country - then to retreat in the wake of worried European partners who caution a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the whole area.

Trump loves to tout his skill to sit down and negotiate deals, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to advance the hostilities any nearer a peaceful end.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Trump and Putin's meeting in the summer yielded no concrete results.

The Russian president may in fact be exploiting the US leader's wish for a deal – and faith in direct negotiations - as a means of influencing him.

During the summer, Russia's leader consented to a high-level meeting in the US state at the time when it appeared likely that Trump would approve on congressional sanctions package supported by GOP senators. That bill was afterwards put on hold.

Last week, as news emerged that the US administration was seriously contemplating shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the president of Russia phoned the US president who then promoted the potential summit in Budapest.

The next day, Trump hosted Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but left without agreements after a allegedly tense meeting.

Trump insisted that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.

"You know, I have been manipulated all my life by skilled operators, and I came out really well," he said.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

However the president of Ukraine later commented on the timeline of developments.

"As soon as the issue of long-range mobility became a less accessible for Ukraine – for our nation – the Russian side almost automatically became less interested in diplomacy," he stated.

So, in a matter of days, the president has shifted from considering the idea of sending missiles to Ukraine to organizing a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and privately pressuring the Ukrainian president to surrender all of Donbas – even territory Russian forces has been failed to capture.

He has finally settled on calling for a truce along current battle lines – something the Russian government has rejected.

On the campaign trail last year, the candidate vowed that he could end the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has since discarded that commitment, admitting that ending the war is turning out more difficult than he expected.

It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his authority – and the difficulty of establishing a framework for peace when neither side desires, or is able to, give up the fight.

Joanna Hall
Joanna Hall

Elara is a seasoned betting analyst with over a decade of experience in sports statistics and risk assessment, helping bettors make informed decisions.