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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their emerge victorious, though analysts believe PVV stands little chance of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and established a four-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is now marginally ahead in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's popularity has dipped since 2023, when it secured 37 seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June over disagreements concerning his controversial anti-refugee plans.

Major Parties and Projections

At the end of a election period focused on topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, projected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, predicted to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all projected to lose seats, with some experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – up to 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and Holland has been governed by multi-party governments – typically composed of several groups in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party becomes the largest party yet is excluded from government. However, opponents and experts say that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is uncertain and coalition talks could take months, political observers indicate that after the most radical administration in its recent history, the future government is likely to be a broad-based coalition led by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is expected shortly after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will test potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.